Covid-19 Vaccine Failure?
There is increasing evidence the mRNA vaccines have rapidly waning effectiveness. A study was conducted in Sweden ( 25 October 2021) looking at the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19), the Pfizer–BioNTech (BNT162b2) vaccine, and the Moderna mRNA (mRNA-1273) vaccine1. Their study found that none of these vaccines were effective after 7 months. This study, as of January 16th, is yet to be pair reviewed, and is currently in a preprint with the Lancet.
Specifically, their findings were (Note: we’ve added the manufacturer names after each vaccine code name, to make them easier to identify):
Findings: Vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech] against infection waned progressively from 92% (95% CI, 92-93, P<0·001) at day 15-30 to 47% (95% CI, 39-55, P<0·001) at day 121-180, and from day 211 and onwards no effectiveness could be detected (23%; 95% CI, -2-41, P=0·07). The effectiveness waned slightly slower for mRNA-1273 [Moderna], being estimated to 59% (95% CI, 18-79) from day 181 and onwards. In contrast, effectiveness of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 [AstraZeneca] was generally lower and waned faster, with no effectiveness detected from day 121 and onwards (-19%, 95% CI, -97-28), whereas effectiveness from heterologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 / mRNA was maintained from 121 days and onwards (66%; 95% CI, 41-80). Overall, vaccine effectiveness was lower and waned faster among men and older individuals. For the outcome severe Covid-19, effectiveness waned from 89% (95% CI, 82-93, P<0·001) at day 15-30 to 42% (95% CI, -35-75, P=0·21) from day 181 and onwards, with sensitivity analyses showing notable waning among men, older frail individuals, and individuals with comorbidities.
Interpretation: Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 infection wanes progressively over time across all subgroups, but at different rate according to type of vaccine, and faster for men and older frail individuals. The effectiveness against severe illness seems to remain high through 9 months, although not for men, older frail individuals, and individuals with comorbidities. This strengthens the evidence-based rationale for administration of a third booster dose.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410
An independent news site, JoNova in Australia, published a useful overview of the Sweden study here.
US Military study of vaccine effectiveness after 6 months
As reported in the LA Times on 4th of November 2021((LA Times: Study shows dramatic decline in effectiveness of all three COVID-19 vaccines over time)), a study was done on nearly 800,000 U.S. veterans to determine the effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen vaccines((Science: SARS-CoV-2 vaccine protection and deaths among US veterans during 2021)). The study assessed effectiveness near the beginning of the vaccinations, and again after 180 days (6 months). Where there was overlap with the vaccines assessed in the Sweden study, the 6 month figures where quite similar. After 6 months the Moderna vaccine was found to be only 58% effective (compare to 59% in Sweden study at 180 day mark). They found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was only 45% effective at 6 months (compare to 47% in Sweden study at 180 day mark). Johnson & Johnson’s Jansen single-dose vaccine fell to just 13% effectiveness at six months. It’s quite possible the US study if continued to 7 months would be similar to that from Sweden, showing 0% effectiveness after the 211 day mark.
UK Data on Vaccine Effectiveness over time
One-sided Conclusions
The common conclusion made by the medical establishment when faced with data of waning vaccine effectiveness is to use it as evidence it’s important people get their booster shot((News Medical: Nationwide Swedish study strengthens evidence for a third booster COVID vaccine dose)). Whilst that’s one point-of-view, and a potentially valid one from a certain perspective, it could also be argued (and publicly pointed out) that governments and the general public were apparently misled when being sold the benefits of the above-mentioned Covid-19 vaccines. In many countries the population has been strongly advised, and eventually coerced, and in some cases legally forced((Bloomberg: Austria to Start Fines for Unvaccinated in March, Nehammer Says)), into getting vaccinated, yet the benefits of doing so have arguably been over-stated, and the potential harmful side-effects have been down-played.