Lockdowns

Did lockdowns help?

The Guardian — Ending England’s Covid restrictions was divisive – but the data shows we were right — Raghib Ali, clinical epidemiologist

Despite Omicron worries, England has fared no worse than other nations that kept restrictions in place

It is now five months since the Omicron variant was first detected in the UK – and although its impact was less severe than many initially feared, it’s estimated that more than 30 million people in England have been infected, with 200,000 hospitalised and even more suffering with long Covid across the UK, and over 20,000 deaths.

… The first Omicron (BA.1) wave, beginning in December, showed us that it was possible to get over a peak without a lockdown. The second (BA.2) wave from March to April was the first time a wave peaked in England without any government-mandated restrictions, as all legal mandates ended on 24 February.

… And because England chose a different path on restrictions to the other home nations (and other western European countries) during the Omicron waves, this provides a very good “natural experiment” to assess how much difference the varying levels of restrictions made. International comparisons do have limitations, but in the absence of better evidence to judge the effectiveness of Covid restrictions, such natural experiments provide a useful guide, especially in comparing the UK home nations, which have similar populations, age structures, climate/seasons, healthcare systems and population-level immunity to Covid.

… There was also no significant difference in overall excess mortality across the home nations to the end of 2021. And England’s is now likely to be lower as – somewhat remarkably, given the Omicron wave – excess mortality is negative in England for 2022 so far, with the lowest age-standardised mortality rates (the best comparator to previous years, as it takes population ageing into account) since the series began in 2001.

Source: The Guardian, opinion piece